Giorgia Meloni’s victory in Italy is Putin’s best-case scenario

Italy has reportedly elected fraternal far-right leader Georgia Meloni as its next prime minister, a political victory easily welcomed by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Meloni leads all exit polls and has delivered a victory speech.

“Italy chose us,” Meloni said, in line with related media. “We will not betray (the country) because we will never betray (the country).”

On Sunday, Italians voted in their first national election since 2018, electing Meloni, a former Putin admirer, as the country’s first female prime minister. The result marked a turning point for Italy, where the country’s eventual broad unified authority is headed by Mario Draghi, which is adamantly opposed to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Brothers in Italy come from post-fascist roots, making Meloni the leading politician of post-fascist descent who has ruled the country since World War II. In her memoirs alone last year, she defended Russia as “part of our European value system”, although she has advocated sending troops to Ukraine for support.

“Given the current local political climate, this is the best end result the Kremlin can hope for when we speak,” said Eleonora Tafolo, an analytical researcher at the Italian Institute for Global Politics. Information week.

Russia has long viewed Italy as “one of the friendliest of many countries in an increasingly unfriendly bloc,” Tafuro defines it, largely because of Italy’s desire to play a “mediator” and become bigger and more dynamic ‘s business.

While the happy relationship under Draghi was less evident, Taforo mentioned that “Meroni’s victory could signal Italy’s return to a more compromising state on the Russian side”.

What makes Meloni so attractive to Putin, Tafuro said, is that she presents herself as a defender of “Italian pursuits” that have recently suffered “war fatigue” and skyrocketing energy costs from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Putin sees this and sees Meloni as the most appropriate choice in the dire political relationship with Italy for two reasons,” she said.

Although Meloni has taken a more centrist stance, condemning the invasion of Ukraine to attract voters, Meloni’s political partners – Silvio Berlusconi and Matteo Salvini – are among the critics is much less aggressive. If the Italian Brotherhood, led by Meloni, wins a majority in the chambers of parliament, it could easily seek tweaks to the EU’s recovery plan – using its public help for Ukraine to act.

Lawrence C. Reardon, a professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire, noted that if Meloni fails to steer Brussels to scaling back Italy’s year-end financial targets, “Putin and his internet trolls will no doubt try to provoke the situation. That, breaking the EU and its financial sanctions on Russia,” he added, including that the Kremlin may even consider offering Melloni cheaper barrels of Russian oil this winter.

At the same time, Meloni’s main opponent, the Italian Democratic Socialist Rally, has been more vocal in its anti-Moscow stance.

“Meloni’s victory won’t be revolutionary, but Putin will obviously welcome it,” said Michael Kimmarch, a former member of the US secretary of state’s reporting planning team. Information week.

While the Kremlin won’t look to Meloni for allies, a convenient game between the larger Italian brotherhood getting together and the rallies of democratic societies will allow Putin to build a “right-wing coalition.” [that] No less than providing a small cabinet that the Kremlin might try to exploit,” Tafuro said.

Putin may have interpreted Meloni’s victory as “the dawn of a new era in Europe” in which help to Ukraine has waned, but Kimmarch mentioned that the Russian president is eyeing elections in different European countries.

Kimmage referred to Putin’s “big campaign” “in Germany and the UK”. Only when the political winds in these countries change will Putin likely “have a real job to do, both to sow discord between Europe and the U.S., and to direct Ukraine to barter over Russian language.”

“However, it’s still a big distance,” he added. “Even a big win at Meloni in Italy doesn’t inherently indicate that, because it does in Italy – and it is in Europe. Still, it’s probably a remote occasion and not a transparent development route .”